Weather Watches for 2015

Valid to 8:32pm Friday 1 Jan 2016

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, GREAT BARRIER ISLAND,WAIKATO, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ISSUED BY METSERVICE 31-Dec-2015

HEAVY RAIN AND GALES FOR NORTHERN NEW ZEALAND

An active low pressure system to the north of New Zealand is moving slowly southwards. This system is preceded by strong to gale easterlies and brings a period of rain to northern and central New Zealand. The heaviest falls are likely about Northland, northern Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula, where a WARNING is in force.

This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria in the following areas:

AUCKLAND south of Whangaparaoa: From Friday morning until Saturday night.

BAY OF PLENTY and WAIKATO: From Friday afternoon until Sunday morning.

In addition, this WATCH is for the possibility that easterly gales may become severe in exposed parts of the following areas:

NORTHLAND: From early Friday morning until Saturday evening.

AUCKLAND, especially north of Whangaparaoa including GREAT BARRIER ISLAND: From late Friday morning until Saturday evening.

COROMANDEL PENINSULA: From late Friday morning until Saturday morning.

WAIKATO, especially near the Kaimai Range: From Friday afternoon until Saturday morning.

People are advised to stay up to date with forecasts as parts of this WATCH may be upgraded to a WARNING, and additional areas may be added to this WATCH.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10AM Friday

 


Valid to 10:47am Friday 1 Jan 2016

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, GREAT BARRIER ISLAND,WAIKATO, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ISSUED BY METSERVICE 31-Dec-2015

HEAVY RAIN AND GALES FOR NORTHERN NEW ZEALAND

An active low pressure system to the north of New Zealand is moving slowly southwards. This system is preceded by strong to gale easterlies and brings a period of rain to northern and central New Zealand. The heaviest falls are likely about Northland and northern Auckland, where a WARNING is in force.

This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall accumulations will reach warning criteria in the following areas:

AUCKLAND south of Whangaparaoa: From Friday morning until Saturday night.

COROMANDEL PENINSULA: From late Friday morning until Sunday morning.

BAY OF PLENTY west of Rotorua, also WAIKATO: From Friday afternoon until Sunday morning.

In addition, this WATCH is for the possibility that easterly gales may become severe in exposed parts of the following areas:

NORTHLAND: From early Friday morning until Saturday evening.

AUCKLAND, especially north of Whangaparaoa including GREAT BARRIER ISLAND: From late Friday morning until Saturday night.

COROMANDEL PENINSULA: From late Friday morning until Saturday morning.

WAIKATO, especially near the Kaimai Range: From Friday afternoon until Saturday morning.

People are advised to stay up to date with forecasts as parts of this WATCH may be upgraded to a WARNING, and additional areas may be added to this WATCH.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9:30pm Thursday December 31st


Valid to 9:45am Sunday 29 Nov 2015

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR BAY OF PLENTY ISSUED BY METSERVICE 28-Nov-2015

RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND TODAY (SATURDAY) WITH HEAVY FALLS

A front is moving slowly northeastwards across the North Island today. A humid north to northwest flow precedes the front, bringing periods of rain to many regions, with a few heavy and possibly thundery falls. This Watch is for the RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY, where rainfall accumulations could approach short-duration warning criteria (for example 70 to 100mm in a 12 to 18 hour period) today and early Sunday morning.

For WAIKATO, TAUPO, ROTORUA and REMAINING PARTS OF BAY OF PLENTY, the Watch is lifted. Periods of rain are still expected today, with a few heavy falls and possible thunderstorms, but the potential for localised downpours has significantly reduced. People in these areas should still stay up to date with the latest thunderstorm forecasts.

For EGMONT AND TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARKS, THE EASTERN TARANAKI HILL COUNTRY AND THE KING COUNTRY, further rain is expected until early afternoon, with a few heavy falls. However, accumulations look likely to be well below warning criteria and the Watch is lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Saturday November 28th

 

 


Valid to 8:43pm Saturday 28 Nov 2015

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WAIKATO, WAITOMO, BAY OF PLENTY, ROTORUA, TAUMARUNUI, TAUPO, TAIHAPE, TARANAKI ISSUED BY METSERVICE 27-Nov-2015

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A front will move over the lower North Island overnight and cross the remainder of the North Island during Saturday. This front is preceded by very strong and moist northwesterlies, and Severe Weather Warnings are in place for heavy rain and severe northwest gales for parts of the lower North Island. This Watch is for the likelihood that rainfall accumulations could reach warning criteria in the following areas...

EGMONT AND TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARKS, ALSO THE EASTERN TARANAKI HILL COUNTRY AND THE KING COUNTRY:

Rain is expected to become heavy tonight, then should ease about Egmont National Park Saturday morning and elsewhere Saturday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations may approach short-duration warning criteria (for example, 70 to 90 mm in a 12 to 18 hour period), especially about higher slopes of Mt Taranaki.

THE RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY:

Periods of heavy rain are expected tonight and during Saturday. Rainfall accumulations could approach warning criteria (for example 70 to 100mm in a 12 to 18 hour period).

WAIKATO, TAUPO, AND REMAINING PARTS OF BAY OF PLENTY, INCLUDING ROTORUA:

Periods of rain are expected tonight and during Saturday, with localised heavy falls and possible thunderstorms. This could produce localised accumulations of 25 to 40mm or more in a 2 to 3 hour period tonight and early Friday morning. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the area most likely to be affected if this rainband does develop, but there is the potential for localised surface flooding and hazardous driving conditions. People are advised to stay up to date with forecasts, including thunderstorm forecasts, as parts of this Watch may be upgraded to a Warning, and further areas may be added.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday 28 November

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WAIKATO, WAITOMO, BAY OF PLENTY, ROTORUA, TAUMARUNUI, TAUPO, TAIHAPE, TARANAKI ISSUED BY METSERVICE  27-Nov-2015 

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

An active front will move up the South Island today (Friday) to reach central New Zealand tonight, before continuing to move northeastwards over the North Island during Saturday.  This front is preceded by very strong and moist northwesterlies, and Severe Weather Warnings are in place for heavy rain and severe northwest gales for parts of the South Island and lower North Island. The Watch for heavy rain about the Tararua Range has be upgraded to a Warning. 

This Watch is for the likelihood that rainfall accumulations could reach warning criteria in the following areas... 

EGMONT AND TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARKS, ALSO THE EASTERN TARANAKI HILL COUNTRY AND THE KING COUNTRY:

Rain is expected to become heavy tonight, then should ease about Egmont National Park Saturday morning and elsewhere Saturday afternoon. Rainfall accumulations may approach short-duration warning criteria (for example, 70 to 90 mm in a 12 to 18 hour period), especially about higher slopes of Mt Taranaki.

THE RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY 

Periods of heavy rain are expected this evening and during Saturday.

Rainfall accumulations could approach warning criteria (for example 

70 to 100mm in a 12 to 18 hour period). 

WAIKATO, TAUPO, AND REMAINING PARTS OF BAY OF PLENTY, INCLUDING

ROTORUA: 

Periods of rain are expected this evening and during Saturday, with localised heavy falls and possible thunderstorms. This could produce localised accumulations of 25 to 40mm or more in a 2 to 3 hour period tonight and early Friday morning. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the area most likely to be affected if this rainband does develop, but there is the potential for localised surface flooding and hazardous driving conditions.

People are advised to stay up to date with forecasts, including thunderstorm forecasts, as parts of this Watch may be upgraded to a Warning, and further areas may be added.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday November 27th Forecast prepared by: Rochelle Fleming Forecast checked by: John Crouch 

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WELLINGTON, WAIRARAPA, TARANAKI, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, BAY OF PLENTY ISSUED BY METSERVICE 26-Nov-2015

HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH ISLAND

An active front will move up the South Island on Friday to reach central New Zealand at night, before continuing to move northeastwards over the North Island during Saturday. This front is preceded by very strong and moist northwesterlies, and Severe Weather Warnings for heavy rain and severe northwest gales are in place for many areas. This Watch is for the likelihood that rainfall accumulations could reach warning criteria in the following areas... TARARUA RANGE: From Friday afternoon until Saturday morning. EGMONT AND TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARKS, INCLUDING THE HIGH COUNTRY BETWEEN THE PARKS: From early Saturday morning until Saturday evening. EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY RANGES: From Saturday morning until Saturday night. People are advised to stay up to date with forecasts as parts of this Watch may be upgraded to a Warning, and further areas may be added. This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Friday November 27th

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR AUCKLAND, WAIKATO, WAITOMO, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, TARANAKI 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 20-Nov-2015

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND TONIGHT AND DURING SATURDAY. NORTHWEST GALES POSSIBLE FOR AUCKLAND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A front is expected to become slow-moving over the central North Island Saturday morning, then should begin to move northeast Saturday night. Widespread rain is expected over central areas from Waikato and Bay of Plenty to Taranaki and Taihape, with heavy falls, and northwesterlies could rise to gale in exposed parts of northern New Zealand Saturday afternoon.

New areas included in this Watch are WAIKATO and AUCKLAND (see below).

This WATCH is for the possibility of rain reaching warning criteria in the following areas...

MT TARANAKI AND THE HILL COUNTRY ACROSS TO TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARK, INCLUDING TAUMARUNUI: Periods of heavy rain are expected until Saturday afternoon. The heaviest rain is expected to be from mid morning until early afternoon, and accumulations could approach warning criteria (for example, 70mm in 12 hours).

WAITOMO AND WAIKATO: Rain is expected to become heavy Saturday morning and should ease early evening, and accumulations could exceed short-duration warning criteria (for example, 50mm or more in 6 hours). It is possible that in some localised areas, 30 to 40mm of rain could fall in a 2 to 3 hour period.

RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY: Periods of heavy rain are expected to continue tonight and throughout Saturday, and accumulations could approach warning criteria (for example, 70 to 100mm in 12 to 24 hours).

In addition, SEVERE NORTHWEST GALES are possible in exposed places in AUCKLAND for a time late Saturday afternoon.

Note, the Watch for heavy rain in Buller, northern Westland, and the Tararua Range is lifted. The Watch for severe gales in Canterbury and Marlborough is also lifted.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, as parts of this Watch could be upgraded to a full Warning, and further areas could be added to the Watch.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday November 21st


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WESTLAND, BULLER, CANTERBURY, MARLBOROUGH, WELLINGTON, WAIRARAPA, TARANAKI, TAUMARUNUI, WAITOMO, TAIHAPE, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA ISSUED BY METSERVICE 20-Nov-2015 

HEAVY RAIN FOR THE WESTLAND AND BULLER RANGES UNTIL THIS EVENING AND FOR HIGHER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND LATER TODAY AND SATURDAY.

NORTHWEST GALES FOR INLAND CANTERBURY AND MARLBOROUGH EASING LATE THIS MORNING OR AFTERNOON.

A front over Fiordland is forecast to cross Westland this afternoon and the lower North Island tonight before becoming slow moving over the central North Island early Saturday. This front is preceded by a strong, moist northwest flow, bringing a period of heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms to the South Island West Coast. The heaviest falls are about the ranges of Westland south of Otira and a WARNING is in force for this area 

This WATCH is for the possibility of rain reaching warning criteria in the following areas...

THE RANGES OF BULLER AND WESTLAND NORTH OF OTIRA:

A period of heavy rain is expected through to late this afternoon or early evening. Rainfall amounts could reach warning criteria during this time (for example 60 to 80mm falling in 10 to 16 hours).

THE TARARUA RANGE:

Rain is expected to become heavy around midday today and should ease tonight. Rainfall amounts could reach warning criteria during this time (for example 60 to 80mm falling in 10 to 16 hours).

MT TARANAKI AND THE INLAND HILLS AND RANGES ACROSS TO TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARK, INCLUDING HIGHER PARTS OF WAITOMO AND TAUMARUNUI:

Rain is expected to become heavy this afternoon and may persist into Saturday morning or possibly longer. Rainfall amounts about the higher hills and ranges may approach warning criteria during this time (for example 70 to 100mm falling in 12 to 24 hours).

RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY:

Rain is expected to pick up tonight with possible heavy falls during Saturday. Rainfall amounts could approach warning criteria during Saturday (for example 70 to 100mm falling in 12 to 24 hours).

The WATCH for SEVERE GALES for Wellington and Wairarapa has been upgraded to a warning. This WATCH covers the possibility of north to northwest winds rising to SEVERE GALE for a time in the following areas...

INLAND CANTERBURY:

Northwest gales could become severe for a time until early this afternoon, especially about higher parts of North Canterbury 

MARLBOROUGH, ESPECIALLY THE SOUNDS:

Northwest gales could become severe for a time through to mid-afternoon today, especially about higher areas.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case part of this Watch is upgraded to a Warning, or further areas are added.

Note, the WATCH for significant heavy rain about Fiordland has been lifted

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday 20th November Forecast prepared by: Andy Downs Forecast checked by: Allister Gorman 

For further information after 1:30pm contact Duty Forecaster Rochelle Fleming 

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, WAIKATO, COROMANDEL PENINSULA,BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA ISSUED BY METSERVICE 24-Oct-2015

BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE NORTH ISLAND TODAY

A front moving across northern New Zealand today is forecast to bring a brief period of heavy rain to the area.

This Watch is for the possibility of HEAVY RAIN approaching short term warning criteria in the following areas...

NORTHLAND:

A brief period of heavy rain is expected later this morning and afternoon with a slight risk of localised downpours and rainfall amounts of 50mm falling within 6 hours.

COROMANDEL PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN RANGES OF WAIKATO:

A brief period of heavy rain is expected this morning and early afternoon.  Although warning amounts of rain are looking less likely, a WATCH will be maintained for the time being.

BAY OF PLENTY:

A period of heavy rain is likely from late this morning until early evening, especially about the eastern ranges.  The largest accumulations are expected about the eastern ranges, where amounts could approach short duration warning criteria of 70mm falling within

12 hours. Also, there is slight risk that in other areas some localised shorter bursts of heavy rain could produce up to 50mm within 6 hours.

It is unlikely this WATCH will be upgraded to a warning, however people in the affected areas could possibly see some localised surface flooding and hazardous driving conditions.

The WATCH for the hill country from WAITOMO to TARANAKI, TAIHAPE and WHANGANUI, also the RUAHINE RANGE is lifted as the rain has cleared.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Saturday Forecast prepared by: Andy Downs Forecast checked by: Hordur Thordarson

For further information after 1:30pm contact Duty Forecaster Peter Little

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, WAIKATO, COROMANDEL PENINSULA,BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, WAITOMO, TAUMARUNUI, TAUPO, TAIHAPE, TARANAKI,

WANGANUI, MANAWATU ISSUED BY METSERVICE 23-Oct-2015

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR MANY NORTH ISLAND REGIONS

A front lying over central New Zealand is expected to move slowly northwards tonight (Friday) and during Saturday. The front should bring a period of heavy rain to many North Island areas, especially the hills and ranges, tonight and during Saturday. The most significant accumulations are expected about the Tararua Range, Mt Taranaki and Tongariro National Park, where a Warning is in force.

This Watch is for the possibility of HEAVY RAIN approaching warning criteria in the following areas...

The hill country from WAITOMO to TARANAKI, TAIHAPE and WHANGANUI, also the RUAHINE RANGE: From tonight (Friday) until around midday Saturday.

The COROMANDEL PENINSULA and eastern WAIKATO: From Saturday morning until late afternoon. Although warning amounts of rain look less likely, a WATCH will be maintained for these areas.

BAY OF PLENTY: From late Saturday morning until Saturday evening. The largest accumulations are expected to be about the eastern ranges, but there is still a risk that in other localised areas amounts could also approach short-duration warning criteria (eg 50mm in 6 hours).

NORTHLAND (added in this issue of the watch): Saturday morning and afternoon. Localised downpours and thunderstorms are possible, and in some places accumulations could approach short-duration warning criteria (eg 50 to 70mm in 6 to 12 hours).

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and check for updates to this watch in case further areas are added or upgraded to a warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday October 24th


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WAITOMO, TAUMARUNUI, TAUPO, TAIHAPE,TARANAKI, WANGANUI, MANAWATU, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA ISSUED BY METSERVICE 23-Oct-2015

A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR MANY NORTH ISLAND HILLS AND RANGES

A front lying over central New Zealand is expected to begin moving slowly northwards this afternoon.  The front should bring some heavy falls of rain to many of the North Island hills and ranges today and Saturday.

The forecast rainfall about the Tararua Range, Mount Taranaki and Tongariro National Park is likely to exceed warning criteria and these places are now in a Severe Weather Warning.  This Watch covers the possibility that rain in the following places may come close to warning criteria.

The hill country from WAITOMO to TARANAKI, TAIHAPE AND WHANGANUI including the RUAHINE RANGE (excluding Mount Taranaki and Tongariro National Park):

The heaviest rain is likely from Friday afternoon until Saturday morning.

The COROMANDEL PENINSULA and hill country of eastern WAIKATO and BAY OF PLENTY (added in this Watch):

The heaviest rain is expected from Saturday morning until Saturday evening.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and check for updates to this watch in case further areas are added or upgraded to a warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9:30pm Friday 23 October 2015 Forecast prepared by: Allister Gorman Forecast checked by: Erick Brenstrum

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, WAIRARAPA, WELLINGTON, HAWKES BAY, MARLBOROUGH, FIORDLAND, WESTLAND 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 02-Oct-2015

HEAVY RAIN FOR EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY RANGES, ALSO WESTLAND AND FIORDLAND. NORTHWEST GALES ABOUT WAIRARAPA EASE TODAY BUT RETURN TO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND ON SUNDAY.

A front embedded in a strong northwest flow is expected to bring a burst of heavy rain to parts of the upper North Island today and early Saturday morning, before moving eastwards. A second front brings a burst of heavy northwest rain to the west of the South Island today, and is followed by a narrow ridge.

A very strong northwest flow develops over the country on Sunday morning, then eases and turns southwest early Monday morning. A period of northwest gales is forecast for southern and central New Zealand, with severe gales likely in a number of places. The strongest winds are expected about Wairarapa, Canterbury, Otago and Southland, and a WARNING has been issued for severe gales in these regions. In addition, a front embedded in the very strong northwest flow brings a period of heavy rain to the West Coast.

This WATCH is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in the following areas:

FIORDLAND: Until mid-afternoon, then another period of heavy rain from Saturday night until Sunday evening.

WESTLAND: Until this evening, then another period of heavy rain from late Sunday morning until Sunday night.

RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY: From this afternoon until around dawn Saturday.

This WATCH is also for the possibility of northwesterlies rising to severe gale in the following areas:

WAIRARAPA INCLUDING THE RIMUTAKA HILL ROAD: Until this evening. However, note there is a WARNING of severe gales in place from Sunday.

FIORDLAND: From late Sunday morning until Sunday evening.

WESTLAND: From Sunday afternoon until Sunday evening.

MARLBOROUGH AND WELLINGTON: From Sunday evening until early Monday morning.

HAWKES BAY: From Sunday night until early Monday morning.

Rainfall about the Tararua Ranges and the central North Island hill country is no longer expected to approach warning amounts and the WATCH for these regions is lifted.

People are advised to keep up to date with forecasts as it's likely parts of this WATCH will be upgraded to a WARNING and further areas will probably be added to this WATCH.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10pm Friday October 2nd


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TARANAKI, TAIHAPE, WELLINGTON 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 17-Sep-2015 

BURST OF HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE WEST OF THE NORTH ISLAND 

A strong, moist northwest flow covers New Zealand bringing periods of heavy rain to western parts of the country. A trough embedded within this moist northwest flow currently over central New Zealand is expected to move over the North Island tonight (Thursday) and during Friday, while a second embedded trough should move north over the west of the South Island tonight and Friday morning, before weakening. The heaviest rain is expected about the ranges of Westland south of Otira,where a Warning is in force. A cold southerly change is forecast to spread northwards over the country from Friday afternoon, bringing a change to much colder temperatures and snow to 3-400 metres in the south and east of the South Island.

This Watch is for the possibility of HEAVY RAIN reaching warning criteria in the following areas...

The TARARUA RANGE, MOUNT TARANAKI and TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARK: Tonight (Thursday) and Friday morning.

The ranges of EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY: From Friday morning until Friday evening.

People are advised to keep up to date with forecasts in case parts of this Watch are upgraded to a Warning or further areas are added.

Note, heavy rain in the ranges of Buller and Westland north of Otira has eased and the Watch for these areas is lifted. Also, the possibility of north to northwest winds reaching severe gale about Wellington, including the Rimutaka HIll, has passed and the Watch for these areas is also lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Friday 18 September 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TARANAKI, TAIHAPE, MANAWATU, WAIRARAPA, WELLINGTON, BULLER, WESTLAND

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 17-Sep-2015

STRONG, DISTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW ZEALAND.

A strong, moist northwest flow covers New Zealand ahead of a cold southerly change spreading northwards from Friday afternoon. A trough embedded in the northwest flow is currently bringing heavy rain to northern Westland and should move onto the lower North Island this evening and then across the North Island on Friday. The heaviest rain is expected to be about the ranges of Westland, where a Warning is in force. In addition, strong north to northwest winds are expected over central New Zealand ahead of the trough.

This Watch is for the possibility of HEAVY RAIN reaching warning criteria in the following areas...

The ranges of BULLER and WESTLAND, from Otira northwards: Heavy rain spreading north this morning, easing this evening.

The TARARUA RANGE: From this afternoon until early Friday morning.

MOUNT TARANAKI and TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARK: This evening and Friday morning.

The ranges of EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY: From Friday morning until early Friday evening.

This Watch is also for the possibility of north to northwest winds reaching SEVERE GALE about WELLINGTON, including the Rimutaka Hill, until this evening. Although the risk of severe gales has reduced, a Watch will be maintained.

People are advised to keep up to date with forecasts in case parts of this Watch are upgraded to a Warning or further areas are added.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Thursday September 17th

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, WAIKATO, WAITOMO, TAUMARUNUI, TARANAKI, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA,

NELSON, BULLER ISSUED BY METSERVICE 30-Aug-2015

HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN NEW ZEALAND. EASTERLY GALES FOR WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH ISLAND AND UPPER SOUTH ISLAND.

A low pressure system is forecast to bring periods of heavy rain to the upper and central North Island during Monday and Tuesday, along with easterly gales for many parts of northern and central New Zealand.

This WATCH is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations reaching warning amounts in:

NORTHLAND: From Sunday night to around dawn Tuesday.

AUCKLAND: From Monday morning to mid-morning Tuesday.

COROMANDEL PENINSULA: From Monday morning to late Tuesday morning.

WAIKATO: From Monday afternoon to late Tuesday morning.

WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY : From Monday afternoon to around midday Tuesday.

This WATCH is also for the possibility of easterly gales becoming severe in the following regions:

WAIKATO especially near the Kaimai Range, WAITOMO, TAUMARUNUI and TARANAKI: From Monday evening to late Tuesday morning.

Northwest NELSON and BULLER: From Monday evening to Tuesday evening.

This is a developing situation and people in the North Island and upper South Island are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as further areas may be added to this WATCH, and some areas may be upgraded to a WARNING on Monday morning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Sunday August 30th


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NELSON, MARLBOROUGH, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA ISSUED BY METSERVICE  19-Aug-2015

A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE RANGES OF NELSON, MARLBOROUGH AND EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY

A front, preceded by strong northerlies and heavy rain, is expected to move east over the upper South Island this morning (Wednesday), then the North Island during this afternoon and evening. The heaviest rain is expected about Mount Taranaki and a warning is currently in force.

This Watch is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations approaching warning criteria in the following areas...

The ranges of western NELSON and also the Richmond and Bryant Ranges of NELSON and MARLBOROUGH: Until about midday today (Wednesday).

Eastern Bay of Plenty Ranges: Until later this evening.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case any of these areas are upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Wednesday 19 August

 

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NELSON, MARLBOROUGH, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA ISSUED BY METSERVICE  18-Aug-2015

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE RANGES OF NELSON AND MARLBOROUGH AND ALSO FOR THE RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY.

A front over central Westland Tuesday evening is expected to move slowly north over the upper South Island overnight Tuesday and Wednesday morning, then cross the North Island Wednesday afternoon and evening. The front is preceded by moist northerlies and heavy rain.

The heaviest rain is expected to be in the Ranges of Buller including the Paparoa Range and on Mount Taranaki, where WARNINGS are in force. This Watch is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations approaching warning criteria in the following areas...> The ranges of western NELSON and also the Richmond and Bryant Ranges of Nelson and MARLBOROUGH: A period of heavy rain from tonight until late Wednesday morning.

Eastern Bay of Plenty Ranges: From Wednesday morning until Wednesday night.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case any of these areas are upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9am Wednesday 19 August 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIORDLAND, OTAGO, CANTERBURY, WESTLAND, BULLER, NELSON, MARLBOROUGH, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA

ISSUED BY METSERVICE  18-Aug-2015

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, ALSO THE ALPS, RICHMOND RANGE AND RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY.

A moist northerly flow is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to the West Coast of the South Island today (Tuesday), then about parts of the North Island later today and Wednesday. The heaviest falls are expected about Westland south of Otira, the Upper Clutha catchment area of Otago and Mt Taranaki where Warnings are in force.

This Watch is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations approaching warning criteria in the following areas...

FIORDLAND mainly north of Milford Sound: Until early this afternoon (Tuesday).

The remaining headwater areas of the OTAGO lakes and rivers: Until this afternoon.

The headwaters of the CANTERBURY lakes and rivers, south of the Rangitata River: Until late afternoon or early evening today.

The Buller Ranges and Paparoa Range: A period of heavy rain from this evening until early Wednesday morning.

The Richmond and Bryant Ranges: A period of heavy rain from tonight until late Wednesday morning.

Eastern Bay of Plenty Ranges: From late Wednesday morning until Wednesday night.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case any of these areas are upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Tuesday 18 August

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHLAND, OTAGO, MARLBOROUGH, HAWKES BAY, WAIRARAPA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 14-Aug-2015 

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHLAND, EASTERN OTAGO, MARLBOROUGH, WAIRARAPA, HAWKES BAY, AND THE BAY OF PLENTY

A large complex low is expected to move slowly east over the North Island during Saturday and Sunday, bringing rain to many places. The heaviest falls are expected about western Nelson and the Kaikoura Ranges and a HEAVY RAIN WARNING is in force.

This WATCH is for the possibility of significant rainfall accumulations for the following areas -

BAY OF PLENTY east of Te Puke: A period of heavy rain is expected tonight (Friday), easing early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria in localised areas, especially about the ranges.

HAWKES BAY AND WAIRARAPA: Moderate or possibly heavy rain is expected during Saturday and Sunday, especially about the hills and ranges where rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria (for example 100mm falling over 24 hours) 

Remaining parts of MARLBOROUGH: Moderate or possibly heavy rain is expected during Saturday and early Sunday, especially about northeastern areas, where rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria. 

SOUTHLAND, ALSO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OTAGO, ESPECIALLY CLUTHA AND DUNEDIN: A period of sustained rain is expected from Saturday afternoon through to early Sunday, with snow lowering to 400 metres during this time. Rainfall amounts here could approach local warning criteria of 50mm falling in 12 hours, with significant snowfalls also possible above 500 metres.

People in these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in case further warnings become necessary.

Note, rain has eased about Mt Taranaki, Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula and the Watch for these areas has now been lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday 15 August


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHLAND, OTAGO, MARLBOROUGH, WAIRARAPA, HAWKES BAY, TARANAKI, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, 

AUCKLAND, NORTHLAND ISSUED BY METSERVICE 14-Aug-2015

BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND NORTHEAST GALES FOR THE UPPER NORTH ISLAND TODAY, WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALLS POSSIBLE FOR MT TARANAKI, CENTRAL HAWKES BAY, NORTHERN WAIRARAPA, MARLBOROUGH, SOUTHLAND AND EASTERN OTAGO

A broad trough and associated fronts are forecast to cross New Zealand during the next few days bringing rain to many places. The heaviest falls are expected about northern Fiordland, Westland and western Nelson and a HEAVY RAIN WARNING is in force for these areas.

An active front currently over Northland this morning is forecast to cross Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula this afternoon and Bay of Plenty this evening. This front is expected to bring a brief period of heavy rain and northeast gales to these areas.

This WATCH is for HEAVY RAIN and possible SEVERE GALES for the following areas -

NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA: A short burst of heavy rain and possible severe northeast gales is expected in Northland this morning, Auckland from late morning to mid-afternoon and Coromandel Peninsula from early afternoon to early evening.

BAY OF PLENTY: A period of heavy rain is expected from later this afternoon through to early Saturday morning. Rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria during this time, mainly about the ranges (for example 50 to 80mm falling in 12 to 15 hours).

MT TARANAKI: A period of heavy rain is expected for a time this afternoon and evening.

This WATCH is also for the possibility of significant rainfalls about the following areas -

HAWKES BAY AND WAIRARAPA BETWEEN NAPIER AND MASTERTON: A period of moderate or possibly heavy rain is expected during Saturday and Sunday, especially about the hills and ranges where rainfall amounts may approach warning criteria (for example 100mm falling over 24 hours). 

MARLBOROUGH: Heavy rain is expected in northern areas this afternoon and evening ( Friday), then shifting to the Kaikoura Ranges during Saturday.

SOUTHLAND, ALSO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN OTAGO, ESPECIALLY CLUTHA AND DUNEDIN: A period of sustained rain is expected from Saturday afternoon through to early Sunday, with snow lowering to 400 metres during this time.Rainfall amounts here could approach local warning criteria of 50mm falling in 12 hours, with significant snowfalls also possible above 500 metres.

People in these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in case further warnings become necessary.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR FIORDLAND, WESTLAND, BULLER, NELSON, MARLBOROUGH, TARANAKI, NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY

OF PLENTY ROTORUA ISSUED BY METSERVICE  13-Aug-2015

HEAVY RAIN FOR MARLBOROUGH, MT TARANAKI AND THE UPPER NORTH ISLAND. NORTHEAST GALES FOR THE SOUTH ISLAND WEST COAST AND UPPER NORTH ISLAND.

An active front over the Tasman Sea is expected to move eastwards across the country during Friday and Saturday, preceded by rain for many places and strong to gale northeasterlies. The heaviest falls are expected over northern Fiordland, Westland and western Nelson, where a HEAVY RAIN WARNING is in force.

This Watch is for HEAVY RAIN in the following places:

NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY: A short duration burst of heavy rain is likely with the front, affecting Northland and Auckland Friday morning and afternoon, and Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty during Friday afternoon and evening. This may cause localised flooding.

MOUNT TARANAKI: Heavy rain is expected Friday afternoon and evening.

MARLBOROUGH: Heavy rain is expected in northern areas from Friday afternoon, then shifting to the Kaikoura Ranges during Saturday.

This Watch is also for SEVERE GALES in the following places:

FIORDLAND, WESTLAND and BULLER: Northeast gales may become severe for a time about coastal areas from this evening (Thursday) until about mid Friday morning.

NORTHLAND AND AUCKLAND: Northeast gales may become severe for a time about Northland and Auckland during Friday morning and afternoon.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, in case further warnings become necessary.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Friday


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR CANTERBURY, MARLBOROUGH, WELLINGTON, WAIRARAPA, FIORDLAND, WESTLAND, NELSON, BULLER, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE26-Jul-2015

NORTHERLY GALES AND HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND TODAY. HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE WEST COAST, ALSO BAY OF PLENTY MONDAY

An active front crosses the upper South Island this morning and lower North Island this afternoon. This front, preceded by a strong, moist northerly flow, is bringing heavy rain to the South Island West Coast. The heaviest falls are expected about the ranges of northern Fiordland and Westland where a Warning is in force.

During Monday, another front is expected to bring a burst of heavy northerly rain to Fiordland and southern Westland, while a seperate front, also preceded by strong northerlies, brings a period of heavy rain to northern New Zealand.

This WATCH is for the possibility of northerly gales reaching warning criteria in the following areas

RANGES OF EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY From Monday afternoon through to early Tuesday morning accumulations may approach short duration warning criteria (e.g. 60mm in 9 hours).


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WAITOMO, TARANAKI, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, CANTERBURY, HAWKES BAY, OTAGO 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE  07-Jul-2015

SOME HEAVY SNOW ABOUT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH ISLAND AND CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND. RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND TODAY. 

SNOW:

A bitterly cold southerly flow is expected to spread northwards today and Wednesday. Snow is expected to near sea level in the far south, and will lower to about 500 metres about the central North Island on Tuesday night. A Warning for heavy snow is in force for Southland, southern Fiordland and Clutha.

This Watch is for the possibility of HEAVY SNOW for the following areas...

DUNEDIN: From late afternoon or early evening today through to early Wednesday morning above 200 metres. Note, lighter snowfalls are also expected to affect Dunedin City. Occasional snow or sleet showers are likely to continue throughout Wednesday and possibly into Thursday, although the snow level should gradually rise.

CANTERBURY north of the Rakaia River, including Banks Peninsula: Snow is possible tonight (Tuesday), but more significant snow accumulations are expected Wednesday and into Thursday morning above 200 metres. Note, lesser amounts may also affect Christchurch City.

TAIHAPE and HAWKES BAY: Rain is expected to turn to snow tonight (Tuesday) above 500 metres, then possibly lower to 300 or 400 metres during Wednesday. From early Wednesday morning to Wednesday night, accumulations could reach warning criteria above 700 metres.

RAIN: 

A slow-moving front is expected to bring rain to much of the central North Island today. This Watch is for the possibility of accumulations approaching warning criteria in the following areas:

WAITOMO, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, and the EASTERN TARANAKI hill country: Until later this afternoon (Tuesday).

The ranges of Eastern BAY OF PLENTY: During this afternoon and evening (Tuesday).

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as parts of this Watch could be updated to a Warning and further areas could be added.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Tuesday 7 July


Valid to 9:00am Sunday 5 Jul 2015

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, GISBORNE, FIORDLAND

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 04-Jul-2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR NORTHERN NEW ZEALAND TODAY (SATURDAY). BRIEF HEAVY RAIN FOR FIORDLAND.

A complex low north of New Zealand extends a trough over the upper North Island, and this trough is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to northern New Zealand today. The low is expected to move southeast today and early tomorrow but should remain to the northeast of the North Island, and the whole system should lie clear of the North Island by midday tomorrow. The heaviest rain is expected in NORTHLAND where a Warning is now in force.

This Watch is for the possibility of HEAVY RAIN reaching warning criteria in the following areas...

Auckland, including Great Barrier Island: Periods of heavy rain are expected to ease overnight Saturday to Sunday. Thunderstorms are possible north of Warkworth and about Great Barrier Island and these could produce localised rainfall rates in excess of 25mm per hour.

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty: Periods of heavy rain are expected to ease Saturday night.

Gisborne: Bursts of heavy rain are expected during Saturday, especially about the ranges, and should ease Sunday morning.

In addition, another front is expected to bring a period of heavy rain to FIORDLAND from Saturday evening through to early Sunday morning, and accumulations may approach warning criteria.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, including thunderstorm outlook charts, as parts of this Watch may be upgraded to a Warning.

Note, the Watch for Tongariro National Park is lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Saturday July 4th


Valid to 4:29pm Saturday 4 Jul 2015 

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, WAIRARAPA, TARANAKI,

MANAWATU, WELLINGTON, FIORDLAND ISSUED BY METSERVICE 03-Jul-2015

COMPLEX TROUGH BRINGS HEAVY RAIN AND GALES TO PARTS OF THE NORTH ISLAND. FRONT BRINGS BURST OF RAIN TO FIORDLAND

A complex trough is expected to move east over the North Island tonight (Friday) and tomorrow, to clear the country early Sunday. This trough is expected to bring a burst of heavy rain to Mt Taranaki until this evening and a warning is currently in force. This trough is also expected to bring significant rain to some other parts of the North Island.

Furthermore, a front is expected to bring a burst of rain to Fiordland late tomorrow.

This watch is for the possibility that rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria in the following areas:

Northland and Auckland: Bursts of heavy rain are expected overnight Friday and during Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is expected in the east,including Great Barrier Island.

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty: Bursts of heavy rain are expected from Friday night. The rain is expected to ease about Coromandel Peninsula Saturday afternoon and in Bay of Plenty Saturday evening.

Tongariro National Park: During Friday afternoon, easing from around midnight Friday. A total of 40 to 50mm is likely to fall in a 12 hour period. Note that this includes part of the headwaters of the Whanganui River.

Wellington, Horowhenua Kapiti Coast and the south of Wairarapa, including urban areas: Friday afternoon, easing Friday evening.

Fiordland: Saturday evening and overnight Saturday.

This watch is also for the possibility of severe gales in the following areas:

Taranaki about the Mountain: Northerlies may rise to severe gale in exposed places from around noon today, easing late this afternoon.

Taihape: Northerlies may rise to severe gale in exposed places from around noon today, easing this evening.

People in these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in case part of this Watch is upgraded to a Warning or further areas are added.

Note, rain has eased about northern Buller and Nelson and the Watch has now been lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday 3 July


Valid to 9:20am Saturday 4 Jul 2015

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, WAIRARAPA, TARANAKI,

MANAWATU, WELLINGTON, NELSON, BULLER, FIORDLAND ISSUED BY METSERVICE 03-Jul-2015

COMPLEX TROUGH BRINGS HEAVY RAIN AND GALES TO PARTS OF THE UPPER SOUTH ISLAND AND THE NORTH ISLAND. FRONT BRINGS BURST OF RAIN TO FIORDLAND

A complex trough is expected to move east onto central New Zealand today and then move slowly east over the upper North Island tomorrow. This trough is expected to bring a burst of heavy rain to the north of Westland, Buller and Mt Taranaki and a warning is in force for those areas. This trough is also expected to bring significant rain to some other parts of the North Island.

A low is expected to move southeast over the far south of the North Island late this afternoon with severe gales to the east of the low.A warning for severe gales has been issued for Wellington and Wairarapa.

Furthermore, a front is expected to bring a burst of rain to Fiordland late tomorrow.

This watch is for the possibility that rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria in the following areas:

Northland and Auckland: Bursts of heavy rain are expected overnight Friday and during Saturday morning. The heaviest rain is expected in the east,including Great Barrier Island.

Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty: Bursts of heavy rain are expected from Friday night. The rain is expected to ease about the Coromandel Peninsula Saturday afternoon and in the Bay of Plenty Saturday evening.

Tongariro National Park: During Friday afternoon, easing from around midnight Friday. A total of 40 to 50mm is likely to fall in a 12 hour period. Note that this includes part of the headwaters of the Whanganui River.

Wellington, Horowhenua Kapiti Coast and the south of Wairarapa, including urban areas: Friday afternoon, easing Friday evening.

The ranges of Nelson and Buller north of the Karamea River: From this morning, easing this afternoon.

Fiordland: Saturday evening and overnight Saturday.

This watch is also for the possibility of severe gales in the following areas:

Taranaki about the Mountain: Northerlies may rise to severe gale in exposed places from around noon today, easing late this afternoon.

Taihape: Northerlies may rise to severe gale in exposed places from around noon today, easing this evening.

People in these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in case part of this Watch is upgraded to a Warning or further areas are added.

Severe gales are no longer expected in Marlborough and the watch for this area is lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm 3rd July

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TAUPO, TAIHAPE, MARLBOROUGH, NELSON, WESTLAND, FIORDLAND, CANTERBURY, OTAGO,SOUTHLAND

ISSUED BY METSERVICE  29-Jun-2015

WESTERLY GALES FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTH ISLAND AND ALSO THE CENTRAL NORTH ISLAND TODAY AND TOMORROW.

A series of deep lows are expected to pass south of New Zealand this week, maintaining a strong, disturbed westerly flow over the country. At times, severe gales are likely, especially in eastern areas and also the far south. A Warning for severe westerly gales is in force for coastal Southland, including Stewart Island, eastern Otago, inland and South Canterbury, northwest Nelson, also Wairarapa and Hawkes Bay. A front is moving northwards across the South Island and lower North Island this afternoon and evening, and winds are expected to ease behind this front. However, westerlies are likely to rise to gale in many areas again tomorrow.

This Watch is for the possibility of SEVERE westerly gales in the following areas...

FIORDLAND, inland SOUTHLAND and remaining parts of OTAGO not included in the warning: Easing around midday today (Monday). Note, westerly gales are expected through most of Tuesday and could become severe in Southland. 

Remaining parts of CANTERBURY not included in the warning: Easing this afternoon (Monday).

MARLBOROUGH and remaining parts of NELSON not included in the warning: Easing this evening (Monday). Note, west to southwest gales are expected Tuesday afternoon and evening, and could become severe in exposed parts of Nelson for a time.

BAY OF PLENTY, TAUPO and TAIHAPE: Monday afternoon and evening.

In addition, this Watch is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations reaching short duration warning criteria in FIORDLAND and WESTLAND betweeen Milford Sound and Harihari until early this afternoon (Monday).

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case parts of this Watch are upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Monday June 29th


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR MANAWATU, WANGANUI, TAUMARUNUI, WAITOMO, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TAIHAPE, HAWKES BAY, GISBORNE, OTAGO, SOUTHLAND,

FIORDLAND ISSUED BY METSERVICE 20-Jun-2015

HEAVY RAIN AND NORTHWEST GALES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH ISLAND TODAY (SATURDAY). SNOW TO LOW LEVELS IN FAR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY.

A strong moist northwesterly flow with embedded fronts is expected to move over the North Island today and early Sunday morning.

A Heavy Rain Warning is in force for northern Tararua Range, Horowhenua, Taranaki, the central North Island high country, and ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty and Gisborne.

This Watch is for the possibility of HEAVY RAIN in the following areas:

MANAWATU, WANGANUI, WAITOMO and TAUMARUNUI (In the area not covered by the warning): During today (Saturday).

BAY OF PLENTY (In the area not covered by the warning): From late this morning (Saturday) through until early Sunday morning.

This Watch is also for the possibility of SEVERE NORTHWEST GALES in the following areas:

TAIHAPE: This morning and early afternoon (Saturday).

HAWKES BAY: This morning and afternoon (Saturday).

GISBORNE: During today (Saturday).

In addition, a front is expected to move over the South Island during Sunday afternoon and evening, bringing a change to very cold southerlies and snow to near sea level in the far south.

This Watch now includes the possibility of HEAVY SNOW in the following areas:

FIORDLAND, SOUTHLAND and southern parts of OTAGO (especially CLUTHA AND DUNEDIN): For snow accumulations above 300 metres, with lighter falls to near sea level, from late Sunday afternoon through until about dawn on Monday.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case areas in this Watch are upgraded to a full Warning, or new areas are added to this Watch.

Note, heavy rain in Wellington (areas not covered by the Warning) has eased and the Watch for this area is lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Saturday 20 June 2015

 

 


LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN FOR WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY TODAY.

A trough, slow moving over northern parts of the Coromandel Peninsula, is expected to become more active this morning, with localised heavy falls and possible thunderstorms. This trough is expected to move southeast during the day, pushing into western Bay of Plenty this afternoon.

A heavy rain warning is in force for the Coromandel Peninsula.

This Watch is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations approaching warning amounts in the following areas...

WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY (about and west of Te Puke): Localised heavy falls during this afternoon and evening. Intensities of 25 to 35mm/hr are possible, bringing the risk of surface flooding.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, including thunderstorm outlooks, as parts of this Watch could be upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday 6 June 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR AUCKLAND, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA ISSUED BY METSERVICE 05-Jun-2015

LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN FOR GREAT BARRIER ISLAND, COROMANDEL AND WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY SATURDAY

A trough, slow moving over northern parts of the Coromandel Peninsula at midnight tonight, is expected to become more active Saturday morning, with localised heavy falls and possible thunderstorms. This trough is expected to move away southeast during the day, crossing the Bay of Plenty Saturday night.

A heavy rain warning is now in force for the Coromandel Peninsula.

This Watch is for the possibility of rainfall accumulations approaching warning amounts in the following areas...

GREAT BARRIER ISLAND and WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY (about and west of Te Puke) Localised heavy falls about Great Barrier Island Saturday morning and about western Bay of Plenty during Saturday afternoon and evening. Intensities of 25 to 35mm/hr are possible, bringing the risk of surface flooding.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, including thunderstorm outlooks, as parts of this Watch could be upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday 6 June

 

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 05-Jun-2015

LOCALISED HEAVY RAIN FOR GREAT BARRIER ISLAND, THE COROMANDEL PENINSULA AND WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY TOMORROW (SATURDAY).

A front expected to be near Great Barrier Island at midnight tonight should sink slowly southwards tomorrow, while becoming more active. Outbreaks of rain associated with the front could be heavy. The front may stall somewhere between Great Barrier Island and Rotorua, but there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location of the heaviest rain. Due to the uncertainty of the frontal position, a WATCH is now in force for Great Barrier Island, the Coromandel Peninsula (especially eastern areas) and Bay of Plenty west of Rotorua. In these regions, there is the potential for rainfall accumulations to exceed short-duration warning criteria (for example 50-70mm in 6-12 hours) in localised areas during Saturday. Localised downpours, with intensities of 25mm to 35mm per hour are possible, especially near the coast, which have the potential to cause surface flooding and slips.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, including thunderstorm outlooks, as parts of this Watch could be upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday June 5th


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, WAIKATO, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, TAUPO, GISBORNE,

BULLER, NELSON, MARLBOROUGH ISSUED BY METSERVICE  31-May-2015

BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN ABOUT NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND AND COROMANDEL PENINSULA TODAY AND EARLY MONDAY. FURTHER HEAVY RAIN DURING TUESDAY FOR UPPER NORTH ISLAND, ALSO BULLER, NELSON AND MARLBOROUGH.

Two troughs embedded in a moist northeasterly flow, one over Northland and a second over northern Auckland, are expected to drift slowly southwards during today and early Monday, bringing bursts of heavy localised rain to parts of Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula.

This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall accumulations could reach warning amounts in the following areas...

NORTHLAND, especially in the north and east: During this morning and afternoon, with localised heavy falls where rainfall rates may briefly reach 25 to 35mm per hour.

AUCKLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA, especially in northern and eastern areas and about Great Barrier Island: Periods of rain during today and Monday morning are likely to be heavy at times, with a potential for it to reach short duration thresholds in some areas (50mm in a 6 hour period). Additionally there is a potential for intense hourly rain rates of 25 to 35mm per hour occuring in localised places. Rainfall of this nature if it occurs, has the potential to cause surface flooding, especially about urban areas.

LATE MONDAY AND DURING TUESDAY:

A deepening complex trough of low pressure approaching central New Zealand from the Tasman Sea during Monday and Tuesday is expected to bring periods of heavy and possibly thundery rain to northern and central New Zealand late Monday and during Tuesday.

This WATCH is for the possibility that rainfall accumulation may reach warning criteria in the following areas...

The ranges of northern BULLER, NELSON, MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS and the RICHMOND RANGE: Monday night and during Tuesday.

The upper North Island (NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, WAIKATO, WAITOMO, TARANAKI, TAUMARUNUI, TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARK, TAUPO, BAY OF PLENTY and northern GISBORNE): During Tuesday, but strarting in Northland Monday night.

There is still some uncertainty between the computer models on exactly where the heaviest rain will be (especially with regard to the rain over Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula today and early Monday). People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts in case further areas are added to this Watch or are upgraded to a full Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Sunday 31 May 2015

 

 


Issued: Saturday 30 May 2015
Valid from Monday 1 June 2015 to Thursday 4 June 2015 

A large low is expected to deepen over the Tasman Sea on Sunday, then approach the country on Monday. There is some uncertainty about the position and movement of this low during the week, but at this stage, the low is expected to spread northerly rain over the country during Monday, Tuesday and early Wednesday. There is a moderate confidence of short duration heavy rain about Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula during Monday, with a low confidence about Fiordland and southern Westland. On Tuesday, there is a moderate confidence of heavy rain about most North Island areas from Taranaki to Bay of Plenty northwards, including Nelson, Buller and the Marlborough Sounds, this extends through to Wednesday for places south of Auckland, with a high confidence about the Bay of Plenty.

The flow tends southerly over the South Island during late Tuesday and Wednesday as the low begins to cross the country. The southerlies then spread over the lower North Island on Thursday. There is a moderate confidence of heavy snow above 300 metres about Southland, Otago, and parts of south Canterbury from Wednesday to Thursday, with significant rainfall accumulations possible about sensitive parts of eastern Otago below this level.

This is a developing situation and people are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecast.

30-5-15.png

 

 


SOUTHWEST GALES FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTH ISLAND, INCLUDING WAIRARAPA AND BAY OF PLENTY.

A very cold southwest flow is spreading over the country tonight ( Sunday) and Monday morning. Snow is falling to near sea level about the lower South Island, and a Heavy Snow Warning is in force for Fiordland, Southland, Clutha, Dunedin, Central Otago and the Banks Peninsula.

In addition, southwest gales are expected in a number of places. The strongest winds are likely in the east and south of the South Island and a Warning is in force for Banks Peninsula, Stewart Island and coastal parts of Southland, Clutha and Dunedin south of Moeraki.

This Watch is for the possibility of severe southwest gales in the following areas:

Coastal parts of NORTH OTAGO: From tonight (Sunday) through to early Tuesday morning.

Coastal parts of north Canterbury (north of Banks Peninsula) and the Kaikoura Coast: From early Monday morning through to early Tuesday morning.

Coastal parts of WAIRARAPA: From early Monday morning through to mid-morning Tuesday.

Western BAY OF PLENTY: From Monday morning through to Monday night.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Monday 25 May


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, WAIRARAPA, OTAGO, SOUTHLAND 

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 24-May-2015

SOUTHWEST GALES FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY

A deep low that brought a period of heavy rain to northern New Zealand yesterday and this morning has moved away to the southeast of the country and the heavy rain has eased 

Looking ahead, a very cold southwest flow spreads over the nation today and Monday morning. Snow will likely lower to sea level about the lower South Island this afternoon, and a Heavy Snow Warning is in force for Fiordland, Southland, Clutha, Dunedin, Central Otago and the Banks Peninsula.

In addition, southwest gales are expected in a number of places. The strongest winds are likely in the east of the South Island and a Warning is in force for Banks Peninsula. Also, the Watch for Clutha and Dunedin has been upgraded to be included in a Warning for coastal parts of Otago south of Moeraki.

This Watch is for the possibility of severe southwest gales in the following areas:

Coastal parts of SOUTHLAND east of Bluff: From Sunday evening through to Monday night.

Coastal parts of NORTH OTAGO: From Sunday evening through to early Tuesday morning.

Coastal parts of WAIRARAPA: From early Monday morning through to mid-morning Tuesday.

Western BAY OF PLENTY: During Monday.

Note, winds have eased about Gisborne and Hawkes Bay so the Watch for these areas is lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Sunday May 24th


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR AUCKLAND, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, SOUTHLAND, FIORDLAND, OTAGO

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 22-May-2015

BURST OF HEAVY RAIN FOR AUCKLAND AND WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY SATURDAY. SNOW TO LOW LEVELS ABOUT THE LOWER SOUTH ISLAND SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A subtropical low over the Tasman Sea will move southeastwards across the upper North Island and East Cape during Saturday, bringing a period of heavy rain and strong easterly winds to parts of the upper North Island. A Severe Weather Warning is force for Northland, Coromandel Peninsula and East Cape.

This WATCH is for heavy rain about AUCKLAND, especially about and north of the city (including Great Barrier Island) during Saturday morning and afternoon.

Please note, this WATCH now also covers western BAY OF PLENTY.

Rainfall accumulations may meet warning criteria (e.g. 70mm in 12 hours), especially in locally heavy falls.

In addition, a very cold southerly airstream is expected to spread over the country Sunday and Monday. Snow is expected to near sea level about the lower South Island.

This WATCH is also for the likelihood that snow accumulations will meet warning criteria above 200 metres (e.g. 25cm in 24 hours) about SOUTHLAND, CLUTHA, DUNEDIN, CENTRAL OTAGO and SOUTHERN FIORDLAND from Sunday afternoon to Monday night.

People are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday 23 May

 

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, HAWKES BAY, WAIRARAPA, NELSON, CANTERBURY, OTAGO, SOUTHLAND

WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES FOR MUCH OF NEW ZEALAND EASING THURSDAY

A strong west to southwest flow covering much of New Zealand should gradually ease during Thursday. Gales are likely in many places from this evening through to Thursday afternoon and this Watch is for the possibility these gales may become severe in the following areas...

COASTAL PARTS OF SOUTHLAND AND OTAGO, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN BLUFF AND THE OTAGO PENINSULA: Southwest gales may become severe for a time from this evening through to early Thursday morning.

BANKS PENINSULA: Southwest gales may become severe for a time from shortly after midnight Wednesday through to around midday Thursday.

NELSON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF MOTUEKA: Southwest gales may become severe for a time in exposed places from this evening through to early Thursday morning.

WAIRARAPA AND HAWKES BAY BETWEEN MASTERTON AND NAPIER: Westerly gales may become severe for a time in exposed places from this evening through to early Thursday morning.

BAY OF PLENTY AND COROMANDEL PENINSULA BETWEEN TAURANGA AND WHANGAMATA: Westerly gales are expected soon after midnight Wednesday through to mid-morning Thursday, and may become severe for a time in exposed places.

People in these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in case this Watch is upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Thursday 30th April


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, HAWKES BAY, WAIRARAPA, NELSON, CANTERBURY, OTAGO, SOUTHLAND

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0908hrs 29-Apr-2015

WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES FOR MUCH OF NEW ZEALAND TODAY AND THURSDAY

The west to southwest flow over New Zealand strengthens today, then gradually eases during Thursday. Gales are likely in many places during this time, and this Watch is for the possibility these gales may become severe in the following areas...

COASTAL PARTS OF SOUTHLAND AND OTAGO, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN BLUFF AND THE OTAGO PENINSULA: Southwest gales may become severe for a time from this afternoon through to early Thursday morning.

BANKS PENINSULA: Southwest gales are expected to develop this evening, then ease Thursday afternoon. These gales may become severe for a time, especially early Thursday morning.

NELSON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF MOTUEKA: Southwest gales are expected from this afternoon through to early Thursday morning, and may become severe for a time in exposed places.

WAIRARAPA AND HAWKES BAY BETWEEN MASTERTON AND NAPIER: Westerly gales are expected from late this afternoon through to early Thursday morning, and may become severe for a time in exposed places.

BAY OF PLENTY AND COROMANDEL PENINSULA BETWEEN TAURANGA AND WHANGAMATA: Westerly gales are expected from soon after midnight through to mid-morning Thursday, and may become severe for a time in exposed places.

People in these areas are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in case this Watch is upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Wednesday April 29th

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, WAITOMO, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, TAUMARUNUI, TAIHAPE, GISBORNE, HAWKES

BAY, WAIRARAPA, WANGANUI, MANAWATU, WELLINGTON, MARLBOROUGH, NELSON, CANTERBURY ISSUED BY METSERVICE 26-Apr-2015

HEAVY RAIN AND GALES FOR MANY PLACES AS A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NEW ZEALAND

A broad, complex trough, preceded by a strong, moist northerly flow, is expected to slowly pass eastwards over the country during Sunday and Monday. A band of very heavy rain and northerly gales precede this trough, affecting the South Island today and Monday, then the North Island during Monday and early Tuesday.

A Warning is in force for heavy rain in the north and west of the South Island, and also Taranaki and eastern Bay of Plenty. In addition,there is a Warning for severe gales in Taranaki, Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds.

This Watch is for heavy rain in the following areas:

WAITOMO, TAUMARUNUI and TONGARIRO NATIONAL PARK (including the headwaters of the Whanganui River):

Periods of heavy and possibly thundery rain are expected from late Monday morning until Tuesday morning and accumulations may approach warning criteria.

TARARUA RANGE:

Periods of heavy and possibly thundery rain are expected from Monday afternoon until Tuesday morning.

MARLBOROUGH (areas not included in the warning): A burst of heavy rain is expected Monday afternoon, then further rain is likely Monday night and Tuesday morning. Accumulations may approach warning criteria.

CANTERBURY PLAINS and FOOTHILLS:

Rain is expected to become widespread from Monday afternoon and accumulations may approach warning criteria before easing Tuesday morning.

This Watch is also for the possibility of severe gales in the following areas:

CANTERBURY HIGH COUNTRY, inland NORTH CANTERBURY and higher parts of MARLBOROUGH:

North to northwest winds may reach severe gale at times until Sunday night in Canterbury and early Monday morning about higher parts of Marlborough (not including the Sounds).

NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA and BAY OF PLENTY:

Northerly gales may become severe for a time Monday morning or afternoon as a trough moves across from the west.

TAIHAPE, WANGANUI, MANAWATU and HOROWHENUA KAPITI COAST:

Northerly gales may become severe for a time Monday morning and afternoon.

NELSON: Northerly gales may become severe for a time Monday morning and early afternoon.

GISBORNE, HAWKES BAY and WAIRARAPA:

North to northwest winds are expected to rise to gale Monday afternoon or evening and may become severe for a time before easing Tuesday morning.

Note, the Watch for the possibility of severe gales in FIORDLAND and SOUTHLAND is lifted.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as it is likely that additional areas could be upgraded to a full warning and further areas may be included in the Watch.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Sunday April 26th

 

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, COROMANDEL PENINSULA ISSUED BY METSERVICE 18-Apr-2015 

SHORT BURST OF HEAVY RAIN FOR THE COROMANDEL PENINSULA AND WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY TODAY (SATURDAY). 

A complex trough is expected to move across the North Island today, bringing a short burst of heavy rain to central and western areas.

The trough should lie just north of the Coromandel Peninsula this evening.

This Watch is for the Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty, from about Rotorua westwards, where rainfall accumulations may approach short duration warning criteria (eg more than 50mm in 6hr). The heaviest rain is expected between about 9am and 7pm and thunderstorms are also likely. It is possible that in some places 20-30mm of rain could fall in 2 to 3 hours, which could cause localised surface flooding, especially in urban areas.

Note, the Watch for Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds is lifted.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as this is an evolving situation.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Saturday April 18th Forecast prepared by: Rochelle Fleming Forecast checked by: Hordur Thordarson

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, WELLINGTON, MARLBOROUGH

ISSUED BY METSERVICE 17-Apr-2015

SHORT BURST OF HEAVY RAIN FOR CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA AND WESTERN BAY OF PLENTY DURING SATURDAY

A complex trough is expected to move across central New Zealand during Saturday morning and lie just north of Bay of Plenty in the evening. This trough is likely to bring a burst of heavy rain to several areas about central New Zealand, the western North Island, Coromandel Peninsula and western Bay of Plenty. There is still some uncertainty about the track of the trough and which areas will receive rainfall accumulations approaching short duration warning amounts (more than 50mm in 6hr). However, the places most likely to experience significant bursts of rainfall are...

THE MARLBOROUGH SOUNDS AND WELLINGTON: The heaviest rainfall is likely during Saturday morning between about 2am and 9am.

THE COROMANDEL PENINSULA AND BAY OF PLENTY FROM ABOUT ROTORUA WESTWARDS: The heaviest rainfall is expected Saturday afternoon and evening between about 1pm and 10pm.

In all these areas it is possible that 30-40mm of rain may fall in 3 to 4 hours, which could cause localised surface flooding, especially in urban areas.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts,as there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the location of the heaviest rain.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9am Saturday 18 April 2015

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR WAITOMO, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, HAWKES BAY, WAIRARAPA, WANGANUI, MANAWATU, WELLINGTON

ISSUED BY METSERVICE  10-Apr-2015

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH ISLAND TODAY (FRIDAY).

A complex trough over New Zealand is expected to continue to bring periods of heavy rain to much of the North Island tonight and during Friday, especially in western and central areas from Waitomo to Wellington.

The heaviest falls are expected from Taranaki across to Taumarunui and Taihape, including Tongariro National Park and the headwaters of the Whanganui River, and a WARNING is in force for those areas.

This WATCH is for the following areas...

WAITOMO, WANGANUI AND THE RUAHINE RANGE: Periods of heavy rain are likely during today (Friday), and accumulations could reach warning criteria, especially about the hill country.

MANAWATU TO WELLINGTON, THE TARARUA DISTRICT AND TARARUA RANGE: Periods of heavy rain are expected to ease this evening (Friday). Until then, accumulations could reach warning criteria, especially about the hills and ranges. However, short duration bursts of localised heavy rain (for example 20-30mm in 2 to 3 hours) could cause surface flooding, especially about urban areas.

EASTERN RANGES OF BAY OF PLENTY: A burst of heavy rain is likely this afternoon and evening (Friday), and accumulations could reach short duration warning criteria (e.g. greater than 60mm in 9 hours) during this time.

People are advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts as parts of this WATCH could be upgraded to a WARNING.

Note, heavy rain in northwest Nelson has eased and the WATCH for this area is now lifted.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday 10 April 2015

 

 


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, HAWKES BAY ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0913hrs 14-Mar-2015

GALE SOUTHEASTERLIES, HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE SEAS FOR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE NORTH ISLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Pam, currently located near southern Vanuatu, is forecast to track southeastwards over the weekend and pass east of New Zealand during Monday and Tuesday. There remains some uncertainty as to how close to the North Island the eventual cyclone track will be, however, it will likely be a significant event, with strong southeast winds and rain expected over much of the North Island late Sunday and during Monday, along with extremely large seas about the east coast. A Warning has been issued for Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay for expected heavy rain and severe southeast gales.

This WATCH is for the possibility of severe gales in the following areas...

NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA, including GREAT BARRIER ISLAND:
Southeast winds are expected to rise to gale Sunday evening, and may rise to severe gale for a time from Sunday night through to Monday afternoon.

NORTHERN HAWKES BAY:
Southeast winds are expected to rise to gale early Monday morning,and may rise to severe gale for a time from late Monday morning through to Monday evening.

This WATCH is also for heavy rain in the following areas...

EASTERN NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA, including GREAT BARRIER
ISLAND:
A period of heavy rain is expected from Sunday evening through to late Monday morning. Rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria during this time (greater than 75mm in 15 hours).

This WATCH is also an alert for dangerous coastal conditions...

People should be aware that unusually heavy swells and very large waves are expected to affect the east coast of the North Island, starting near Cape Reinga Sunday evening, then spreading southwards to reach Wairarapa late Monday. Waves of this size have significant potential to cause coastal erosion and damage, especially when combined with gales and storm surge. Anyone considering venturing near the water should take extra precautions and be sure to check the latest coastal marine forecast for expected adverse conditions.

This is a developing situation and people are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in the event further areas are added, or part of this Watch is upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Saturday 14 March 2015 Forecast prepared by: Peter Little Forecast checked by: Andy Downs

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, GISBORNE, HAWKES BAY ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1627hrs 13-Mar-2015

GALE SOUTHEASTERLIES, HEAVY RAIN AND LARGE SEAS FOR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE NORTH ISLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

Cyclone Pam, currently located near Vanuatu, is forecast to track southwards over the coming days and pass east of the country during Monday and Tuesday. There is some uncertainty as to how close to the North Island the eventual cyclone track will be, however, it has the potential to be a significant event, with strong south to southeast winds and rain expected over much of the North Island during Monday, along with large seas and swells about the east coast.

This WATCH is for the possibility of severe gales in the following areas...

NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA, including GREAT BARRIER ISLAND:

Gale south to southeast winds expected to develop Sunday evening, and may rise to severe gale for a time late Sunday and during Monday.

EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY and GISBORNE:

Gale south to southeast winds expected to develop early Monday morning, and may rise to severe gale for a time during Monday.

This WATCH is also for heavy rain in the following areas...

EASTERN NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA:

A period of heavy rain is expected late Sunday and into Monday.

Rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria during this time - greater than 80mm in 18 hours.

GISBORNE, EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY RANGES and NORTHERN HAWKES BAY:

A period of heavy rain is expected during Monday and into Tuesday, especially about the ranges. Rainfall accumulations are expected to exceed warning criteria during this time - greater than 10mm in 24 hours, and a Warning will likely be issued during the weekend.

This WATCH is also an alert for dangerous coastal conditions...

People should be aware that unusually heavy swells and very large waves are expected to affect the east coast of the North Island, starting near Cape Reinga Sunday evening, then spreading southwards to reach Wairarapa late Monday.  Waves of this size have significant potential for coastal erosion, especially combined with gales and storm surge. Anyone considering venturing near the water should take extra precautions and be sure to check the latest coastal marine forecast for expected adverse conditions.

This is a developing situation and people are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in the event further areas are added, or part of this Watch is upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10am Saturday 14 March 2015 Forecast prepared by: Sarah Garlick Forecast checked by: John Crouch

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015


SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, GISBORNE, HAWKES BAY ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0952hrs 13-Mar-2015 

GALE SOUTHEASTERLIES FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN ABOUT GISBORNE, NORTHERN HAWKES BAY AND THE COROMANDEL PENINSULA

Cyclone Pam, currently located near Vanuatu, is forecast to track southwards over the coming days and pass east of the country during Monday and Tuesday. There is some uncertainty as to how close to the North Island the eventual cyclone track will be, however, it has the potential to be a significant event, with strong south to southeast winds and rain expected over much of the North Island during Monday.

This WATCH is for severe gales in the following areas...

NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA, including GREAT BARRIER ISLAND:

Gale south to southeast winds expected to develop Sunday evening, and may rise to severe gale for a time Sunday night and early Monday morning,before easing by Monday afternoon.

EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY and GISBORNE:

Gale south to southeast winds expected to develop early Monday morning, and may rise to severe gale for a time during Monday, before easing Tuesday morning.

This WATCH is also for heavy rain in the following areas...

EASTERN NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA:

Rain is expected to become heavy from Sunday evening, then ease late Monday morning. Rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria during this time - greater than 80mm in 18 hours.

GISBORNE and NORTHERN HAWKES BAY:

Rain is expected to become heavy from early Monday morning,especially about the ranges, easing Tuesday morning. Rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria during this time - greater than 100mm in 24 hours. 

This is a developing situation and people are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in the event further areas are added, or part of this Watch is upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday 13 March Forecast prepared by: Leigh Matheson Forecast checked by: Erick Brenstrum

For further information after 2pm Friday 13 March contact Duty Forecaster Sarah Garlick

(C) Copyright Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd 2015

 


Valid from Saturday 14 March 2015 to Tuesday 17 March 2015

 

A ridge of high pressure should remain over the South Island until Monday. A southeast flow should develop over the North Island on Saturday and strengthen on Sunday as TC Pam moves out of the tropics and southeastwards.

TC Pam is expected to remain east of New Zealand, but parts of the North Island are likely to be affected by severe weather on Monday and Tuesday, especially Gisborne, northern Hawkes Bay and the eastern ranges of Bay of Plenty, where there is a high confidence of warning amounts of heavy rain and severe southeast gales, possibly starting early Monday morning and this risk continues into Tuesday as the low tracks further south and the flow turns southerly.

For Northland, northern Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula, there is moderate confidence that rain could become heavy overnight Sunday and during Monday and southeast gales could become severe. Southeasterlies are expected to turn southwest as the low tracks further south late Monday and early Tuesday and there is also a low risk of severe southwest gales on Tuesday.

Further south, there is moderate confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria and south to southeast gales could be severe in central and southern Hawkes Bay and the Central Plateau on Monday and Tuesday.

In addition, strong southeasterlies are likely to affect the remainder of the North Island and there is a moderate confidence that these could become severe about Auckland City, Waikato and Bay of Plenty. Winds should turn southwest on Tuesday, and there is low confidence that these southwest gales could also be severe. There is a low confidence of severe south to southeast gales for western parts of the North Island from Waitomo and Taupo to Kapiti on Monday and Tuesday.

On Tuesday, as the low tracks further south, there is low confidence of heavy rain and severe southerly gales about Wairarapa and Wellington, and also Marlborough and Canterbury.

Also of significance, unusually heavy northerly swell should affect exposed coastlines from Cape Reinga to East Cape from later Sunday and during Monday,and as the low tracks south during Tuesday, heavy southeast swell expected to affect exposed coastlines of Gisborne, Hawkes Bay and Wairarapa. This swell has the potential to cause coastal damage and dangerous sea conditions.

The Chatham Islands are also likely to be affected by gales, heavy rain and unusually heavy swell from later Monday and during Tuesday.

There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the track of TC Pam and severe weather watches and warnings will be issued as the situation evolves.

PAM001.png

 

 

Low confidence:
a 20% likelihood (or 1 chance in 5) that the event will actually happen.
Moderate confidence:
a 40% likelihood (or 2 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen.
High confidence:
a 60% likelihood (or 3 chances in 5) that the event will actually happen

 

 


 

 

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